I am going to start changing the way I do these Quick Bytes.

The goal was always to make them short, and they have become too long. So moving forward, if something has not materially changed, I am going to skip it and focus only on what is new.

Today, that means crypto.

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After an adventurous week, I want to end with a reminder:

Panic is not a strategy.

When markets experience the kind of cascading selloff we saw yesterday, a significant portion of the selling is often forced liquidation rather than investors calmly deciding assets are overval…

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There is a lot of panic today, so I want to use this Quick Byte as a reset.

Nothing I am seeing right now looks fundamentally outside the framework we have been discussing.

The dollar is still pulling back rather than breaking toward 105–107. Gold and silver are bouncing,…

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The air feels different today.

After last night’s election, I expected markets to open green, and that is exactly what happened.

The reason was not simply that Democrats won. The more important issue, in my view, was the size of the victory.

Going into the election, I thou…

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We are heading into Election Day with markets trying to price several things at once: political gridlock, weaker growth, falling yields, continued pressure in crypto, and the possibility that we are finally reaching some of the retracement levels we have been waiting for.

On the political side, markets appear to be pricing a strong chance of Democrats taking the House and possibly the Senate.

My expectation remains that the immediate market impact of that would probably be gridlock.

Congress would become much less able to pass new policy, tariffs could face more resistance, and the administration would have fewer opportunities to make large unilateral changes without a fight.

That is generally something Wall Street likes.

It does not mean government suddenly becomes functional. I actually expect more shutdowns, investigations, subpoenas, legal fights and constitutional confrontations.

But from a market perspective, gridlock can reduce policy risk, which is one reason I still think we could see another meaningful equity rally.

The Dollar Still Looks Weak

The DXY continues to behave roughly as expected.

Despite repeated calls for a major dollar breakout, it has not run away. I still see the larger near-term trajectory as lower before the eventual recession-driven flight-to-safety move higher.

Oil also sold off again on another round of Iran-deal headlines.

I remain skeptical of those headlines, but the market continues reacting to them.

Gold and Silver Are Bouncing — But I’m Still Not Buying

Gold and silver are finally bouncing after becoming deeply oversold.

But I do not see that as evidence that the larger correction is finished.

Gold has sold off relentlessly, broken below the 365-day moving average, and reached a significant support area. A bounce from here makes perfect technical sense.

Silver is even more oversold, with RSI below 30 and price hitting major historical support.

But my long-term accumulation targets remain much lower.

For silver, I am increasingly interested closer to roughly $37–$40.

For gold, I still want something closer to a full return to sender before I become aggressive.

TLT and Treasuries Continue to Work

I remain very comfortable with my Treasury positioning.

The TLT buy area was roughly $76–$78, and we are now around $81.

I could see TLT moving toward $83–$84, but I still do not think the larger breakout has begun. I expect another pullback before the eventual recession trade.

The bigger win so far has been moving out of three- and six-month Treasuries and into the 5- and 10-year when yields were above 5%.

Those positions have appreciated while still paying attractive yields.

Bitcoin: I’m Still Accumulating

My crypto plan has not changed.

Bitcoin remains the strongest of the major coins, and Bitcoin dominance is still above 60%.

I currently have one long position from approximately $77,200, originally entered near the 365-day moving average.

My next planned buy is around the 50-week moving average, which is converging with the 50% Fibonacci retracement near $75K.

Below that, my final major buy area remains around $73K, near the rising 200-day moving average.

The Golden Pocket is around $72K.

I still expect total crypto market cap to complete its 50% retracement around roughly $2.54 trillion, and from there I think a rebound becomes increasingly likely.

If Bitcoin completes that retracement, I could easily see a bounce back toward approximately $81K.

At that point, I may even take profits on some longs and potentially short the move again if I still believe the larger retracement is unfinished.

Ethereum and Solana Are Weaker

Ethereum has already retraced much further than Bitcoin and is sitting near its 50% retracement.

Solana remains the weakest chart.

It has broken through several major support levels and is now near the bottom of its Golden Pocket.

The important line for Solana is the 200-day moving average.

If Solana begins closing below that level repeatedly—not just wicking through it—that would become much more bearish.

For now, that is not my base case.

The Magnet Strategy’s First Time-Based Exit

The most interesting development in the Crypto Magnet strategy was its first time-based exit.

The BTC short entered around $77,058 and had a normal price stop much higher.

But the strategy also had a maximum three-day holding period.

When that 72-hour window expired, the system automatically closed the trade around $78,057, creating a loss.

The frustrating part is that Bitcoin later fell below the original entry and the trade would have become profitable had we simply allowed it to remain open.

That raises an important question:

Are our time-based exits too restrictive?

Most Magnet trades complete very quickly—often the same day or within one or two days—so this is the first time we have really seen the time stop become relevant.

We do not have enough data yet to change anything.

But when we do our next optimization review, I want to test whether removing time-based exits entirely, or extending the window beyond three days, improves the historical and forward results.

Bottom Line

The overall framework remains intact.

I still expect political gridlock to be relatively supportive for equities, the dollar remains on the expected near-term path, and my Treasury positioning continues to work.

Gold and silver are bouncing from oversold conditions, but I still think better long-term accumulation prices are ahead.

In crypto, I am continuing to accumulate into support rather than panic into weakness.

Bitcoin remains stronger than Ethereum and Solana, and my next major buy areas remain approximately $75K and $73K.

Meanwhile, the Magnet strategy has given us another useful piece of forward data.

Its first time-based exit may have cost us a winning trade.

That does not mean the rule is wrong.

But it gives us something specific to test when we begin the next optimization pass.

Today is a very red Friday. SPY is down more than 2%, the Nasdaq nearly 4%, and crypto is under pressure as well.

But before panicking, I think it is important to separate what is actually new from what has been part of the plan all along.

On the macro side, v…

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Today’s Quick Byte is intentionally short after the marathon Founders LIVE meeting.

Most of the larger framework continues to play out roughly as expected. The DXY is running into resistance, and at this point I increasingly think the dollar may roll back down rather than make the next leg higher immediately.

That also keeps TLT behaving within the zigzag pattern we have been watching.

I continue to like TLT, but this is not where I would add. My framework remains simple: buy near the bottom of the range, not near the top.

The same applies to the 5-year Treasury. Whenever yields push back above roughly 5%, I continue to think the risk/reward becomes attractive.

Bitcoin Continues to Lead Crypto

The more interesting story today is Bitcoin’s continued relative strength.

Bitcoin is not only outperforming the broader market—it is also outperforming Ethereum and Solana.

Bitcoin dominance has been rising since roughly June, and the charts continue to reflect that leadership.

More importantly, crypto is trading extremely technically right now.

Solana has repeatedly defended its 50% Fibonacci retracement, while also sitting on a dense cluster of support including the 21 EMA, 50 EMA and Golden Pocket.

Ethereum looks similar. It is parked near its 50% retracement, while also sitting above the 50-week moving average and 21-week EMA.

That is why I continue to say there is simply more traffic beneath crypto than above it.

Could prices fall?

Absolutely.

But they have to chew through a tremendous amount of technical support to do it.

Bitcoin is even stronger. Its major support remains further below, around the 365-day moving average near $77K, followed by the 21-week, 50-week and 50% retracement.

That distance itself is evidence of Bitcoin’s relative outperformance.

Why I Closed My $81K Short

This continues to validate why I closed my Bitcoin short from roughly $81K for a profit.

I did not close it because I suddenly became bullish.

I closed it because I did not want to remain short while price was moving into layer after layer of technical support.

The structure still looks like:

elevator up → escalator down → elevator up → escalator down.

That is very different from the impulsive downside structure we saw during the heart of the bear market.

The Magnet Strategy Made a Remarkable Trade

The part that continues to impress me most is the Crypto Magnet SHADOW strategy.

During the Founders LIVE meeting, the BTC Long strategy fired automatically.

It entered around the $80K–$81K area and set its profit target near $81,857.

That exit ended up being almost perfectly at the local top before Bitcoin rolled back over.

What makes that interesting is that the strategy does not know any traditional technical analysis.

It does not see:

• Bollinger Bands

• moving averages

• Fibonacci levels

• macroeconomic data

• FOMC meetings

• news

It only sees things like liquidity pockets, open interest and futures positioning.

Yet it exited almost exactly where traditional technical resistance appeared.

That tells me something important.

The move itself was probably being driven by liquidity.

The system saw the pocket, entered the move, captured it and exited before the reversal—all without being told where traditional resistance was.

Current Liquidity Map

The Magnet Map is now showing several important areas.

On the upside, notable liquidity remains around:

$82.4K → $84.5K → roughly $85K

On the downside, the next major pocket is around:

$78.7K

That gives us a fairly clear battlefield.

If market makers push higher, I would not be surprised to see them sweep toward $85K before rejecting.

If broader market weakness finally pulls Bitcoin down with it, the $78K area becomes the next important downside magnet.

SHADOW Reaches Another P&L High

The SHADOW Portfolio is now at its highest P&L level so far.

We are approaching roughly $1,000 of profit over 56 days, and that still excludes a significant number of Ethereum wins that were not properly recorded earlier.

More importantly, every active strategy currently has a positive win rate.

That is what I care about far more than the absolute dollar amount.

The question remains:

Can this system trade profitably without me, without discretionary intervention, without news, without macro inputs and without even knowing traditional technical analysis?

So far, the answer continues to look increasingly promising.

Bottom Line

Bitcoin continues to show impressive relative strength, both against equities and against the rest of crypto.

Ethereum and Solana remain parked around major technical support, while Bitcoin continues floating well above its deeper support structure.

But the most interesting development remains the Magnet strategy.

The latest BTC Long trade entered and exited almost perfectly using nothing but liquidity and open-interest information.

That is exactly the kind of edge I am looking for.

As markets increasingly move toward 24/7 automated trading, I do not want a bot that simply trades the same indicators every other bot sees.

I want one that sees something different.

This Founders LIVE was deliberately broader than our usual market discussions. I wanted to start as wide as possible—with politics, social change and AI—and gradually work our way down into the economy, equities, bonds, gold, Bitcoin and ultimately the Crypto Magnet strategy.

The thr…

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Most of the larger framework remains intact, so today I want to focus mainly on crypto and explain why I closed my Bitcoin short.

First, TLT continues to behave about as expected. We moved through the buy zone, but I still expect more chop rather than an immediate breakout. I continue to believe equitie…

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There is finally some meaningful movement worth discussing.

Equities sold off hard today, with SPY down more than 1% and the Nasdaq significantly weaker. But despite the ugly tape, several things are still playing out within the framework I have been watching.

The Dol…

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There is not a tremendous amount new today because markets remain in a holding pattern, but several pieces continue to develop roughly as expected.

Oil remains extremely headline-sensitive around the Iran conflict, so I continue to expect substantial volatility …

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Today’s update is quick because most of the larger thesis remains intact.

We are beginning to see some of the DXY relief I have been expecting. The dollar could still make one final push higher, but it looks increasingly close to rolling over. USD/JPY is also approaching the area I have been watching, and I continue to think roughly 160 is the upper limit before meaningful pressure for a reversal builds.

TLT Is Following the Expected Path

At the same time, TLT continues behaving almost exactly like the shape I have been drawing.

I still expect a zigzagging move, potentially toward roughly $83–$83.50, rather than an immediate straight-line breakout.

That is also why I moved out of short-term Treasuries and into the 5- and 10-year, while separately accumulating TLT as a trade. The five-year has remained very sticky around 5%, which continues to make that position attractive to me.

The bigger TLT move, in my view, comes when equities eventually have a significant selloff. My first larger target would be somewhere above $100. If a deeper recession follows, I could see TLT eventually reaching roughly $125–$127 before I would want to exit as the policy response turns inflationary again.

The important point is that this is a multi-month trade, not a day trade. I am being paid more than 5% while I wait.

Bitcoin Is Showing Real Relative Strength

Yesterday I said crypto was outperforming on a relative basis even though Bitcoin itself was down.

Today we are seeing confirmation.

The QQQ was down while Bitcoin was actually positive. For a high-beta asset like Bitcoin, that is meaningful relative strength.

Bitcoin briefly broke below its 50-day moving average, reached roughly $79,600, never touched the 365-day moving average, and then recovered.

That gives Bitcoin room for another push toward roughly $84K–$85K.

I still think a deeper test remains possible. The 365-day moving average around $78.5K continues to make sense to me, with another important confluence around $76K where the 21-week and 50-week averages are converging.

But right now, Bitcoin continues to hold up better than I would have expected given the macro environment.

Ethereum Finally Hit the 50% Retracement

Ethereum has now done exactly what we had been waiting for: it reached its 50% Fibonacci retracement.

Even more importantly, that area lined up with the 50-week and 21-week moving averages, and buyers stepped in almost immediately.

It can certainly retest that area, but this is precisely why I keep emphasizing the 50% retracement. Markets repeatedly come back to these levels even when, during the rally, it feels impossible that they ever will.

Solana has not quite reached its 50% retracement yet, but it did defend its descending 365-day moving average. If that breaks, the next major confluence is very close to the 50% Fib.

Crypto Magnet SHADOW Keeps Improving

The SHADOW Portfolio also reached another milestone.

We have now seen Bitcoin long, Bitcoin short, Ethereum long and Ethereum short all trigger.

Both short strategies are currently 100% winners.

Ethereum remains the standout. Officially it is 11 wins and five losses, but including the five off-book winning trades caused by earlier technical problems, the true performance would be 16 wins and five losses.

Bitcoin long remains the weakest strategy at two wins and three losses.

Solana still has not fired either long or short, which continues to be something I want to investigate once we complete this observation period.

Most importantly, after 28 trades, the overall SHADOW portfolio has reached a new P&L high.

We are now up roughly 78 basis points over 41 days, despite the system trading completely unsupervised and despite the extremely choppy environment.

The goal was never to create some ridiculous 500% annual strategy. If this system can ultimately generate something like 8–10% annually, while using relatively little capital and allowing the idle cash to earn another 3% or more, that becomes very interesting to me.

The latest Ethereum short is a good example of what I want from the system. It entered the short, captured the decline, exited near the low, and avoided the rebound. Had it stayed in the trade, it would already be underwater.

That is exactly what I want from an automated strategy: take the opportunity, take the profit, and leave before greed becomes part of the equation.

Bottom Line

The dollar is beginning to show the relief I have been waiting for, TLT continues to behave according to plan, and crypto is demonstrating impressive relative strength.

Bitcoin remains the strongest of the major crypto charts, Ethereum has finally tagged its 50% retracement, and Solana is approaching its own major technical support.

Meanwhile, the SHADOW Portfolio has now reached an all-time P&L high after 28 trades.

There is still a lot more data to collect, especially around Solana and Bitcoin long.

But so far, for an entirely automated strategy operating in difficult markets, I continue to like what I am seeing.

Time and Date:

TUESDAY, October 27th, at 1:30 PM - Pacific Standard Time.

This will be 30 minutes after the Market Close.

Venue:

Given the amount of people that already have DISCORD usernames and accounts, we will be hosting this event again using : DISCORD STAGE CHANNELS.

If you are already a Member of the Discord channel : “THE PIVOT : Founders Forum”, you do not need to sign up again. Just show up the day of the event.

As before, all participants in the room will appear as their current AVATARs. You can thus preserve your full anonymity.

There will be a virtual Stage. I will be speaking from that Stage, and will invite people to raise their hands if they have questions or simply want to speak. Folks will then be invited to join the Stage and that is how speaking will be moderated to prevent a total free-for-all of people speaking over each other.

You do not have to speak if you chose not to.

I may chose to share and present Charts during this presentation.

What if I cannot make it?

For those that cannot make it, we will be recording the VIDEO feed of this event, and I will post the recording here, behind the '“Founders Paywall” so that Founders can come by later and listen to, or watch it at their leisure.

We will also include an AI Transcription bot, that will auto-transcribe the AUDIO, so that you can read the event if you would prefer not to listen to it.

Topic:

The Mid-Terms are coming up fast.

What happens if the Dems reclaim the House? What about the Senate? Both? None?

What happens if they win and are not seated?

Run Time:

I have booked out 120 minutes.

If we fill that time, great. If we run out of questions or things to talk about. We will end it earlier than that.

Today is mostly a refresher because very little has fundamentally changed. The market continues to behave roughly the way I have been expecting, with the dollar still near important resistance, gold and silver continuing to weaken, TLT working through its accumulation range, and …

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Today I want to focus on self-custody, because recent hardware-wallet incidents have understandably made some people question whether holding your own crypto is still the safest approach.

For me, the answer remains yes—but only if it is done carefully.

The important distinction i…

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Today’s update is really about how to judge a healthy retracement, which moving averages actually deserve attention, and a small but important milestone for the Crypto Magnet SHADOW Portfolio.

On the macro side, we are finally seeing some movement in the di…

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Today I want to focus on two things: where the dollar may be heading and why I continue to believe Bitcoin can experience a meaningful retracement without invalidating the bullish setup.

I’ve been spending more time looking at Forex because my macro framework always begins with the dollar. The DXY is currently grinding against its 200-week moving average, and while a lot of commentary is calling for a major dollar breakout, I continue to think the upside is becoming increasingly limited.

Taking a Tour Through the DXY

Rather than looking only at the DXY itself, I went through several of the currencies that make up the index to see whether they tell the same story.

The euro, which represents the largest component, is approaching its own major long-term support and 200-week moving average. That suggests the dollar may still have a little room to strengthen, but probably not an unlimited amount.

The yen is telling a similar story. We are again approaching areas where previous weakness in the yen triggered intervention. That creates another natural limit on how much additional dollar strength I would expect before pressure builds for a reversal.

The Swiss franc produces almost the same conclusion: the dollar can potentially push somewhat higher, but it is approaching the top of a multi-year structure and its 200-week moving average.

That gives me confluence across several currency pairs.

My working expectation is therefore a little more dollar strength, followed by a larger reversal lower. If that reversal eventually takes DXY toward roughly 93–94, I think it could provide another substantial tailwind for equities, crypto, and eventually precious metals.

Why I’m Still Buying TLT

I remain structurally bearish on long bonds over the very long term, but the current yield changes the trade for me.

With the 20-year above 5.5%, I am being paid enough to wait.

I initially bought TLT around $78, added around $77.60, and again around $77. I am not expecting it to immediately rocket higher. My expectation remains that it may chop for some time before eventually benefiting from either recession, a significant market selloff, or another flight to safety.

Meanwhile, I continue rolling shorter-duration Treasury holdings into the 5- and 10-year, where yields around 5% give me much more flexibility.

Bitcoin: A Pullback Is Not Automatically Bearish

I still have my small $81,000 short position, while my other three trading slots remain flat.

The reason is simple: I continue to expect a retracement.

Bitcoin moved from roughly $57,000 to $86,000 without a meaningful pullback. So the idea that falling below $83,000 would somehow invalidate the bullish case makes no sense to me.

A 28%–33% advance followed by more than a 5% retracement would be completely normal. Historical Bitcoin bull markets have experienced pullbacks of 50% or more without ending the larger bullish trend.

The more important levels are below:

• $82,800 — breakout/support area

• roughly $79,000 — 365-day moving average

• roughly $78,000 — 50-week moving average

• roughly $75,000 — 50% Fibonacci retracement, near the 21-week EMA

Any of those could produce a perfectly healthy bullish retracement.

If Bitcoin produces a slow, orderly pullback into those areas, I will likely close the short and begin adding longs.

What I still need before formally calling the bear market over is the same thing I’ve been waiting for all along: a higher low followed by a new higher high.

Ethereum and Solana

Ethereum has already found support where the previous flag intersects its 200-week moving average. Below that, I’m watching roughly $2,470, $2,400, and then the 50% retracement around $2,342.

Solana has potential support around $112, then roughly $107, with the broader 50% retracement near $100.

Those are still bullish retracement areas if buyers appear there.

Bottom Line

The currency markets are giving me increasing confluence that the dollar may have a little more upside, but not much, before running into substantial resistance.

That could line up very cleanly with a near-term crypto pullback followed by another push higher once the dollar reverses.

And for Bitcoin specifically, I do not consider a break below $83,000 bearish by itself.

A normal retracement toward $79K, $78K or even $75K could actually create the higher low I have been waiting for.

The real test comes afterward: can Bitcoin bounce from that retracement and make another higher high?

If it does, that is the confirmation I need.

Today’s update is mostly about the Crypto Magnet SHADOW Portfolio and where the project goes from here.

The original goal was to answer two questions: can the Magnet Map use liquidity, open interest and funding data to identify meaningful near-term moves, and can we build standalone…

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There are several things developing at once, so I want to start with the Crypto Magnet SHADOW Portfolio, move through macro and rates, and then finish with what I think may be the most interesting long-term question facing crypto.

Crypto Magnet SHADOW Portfolio Update

The S…

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A founder recently asked me a fair question: with so many indicators turning bullish, why haven’t I simply declared that the Bitcoin bear market is over and gone aggressively long?

We have seen several encouraging signals. The Fisher indicator has crossed, the bearish moon-cycle signals have failed twice, and Supertrend has turned green. At the same time, I still have a small quarter-position short around $81,000 and have not deployed the rest of that position.

The answer comes down to the difference between calling a bottom and recognizing value.

I Don’t Need the Exact Bottom to Buy

I have never built my framework around declaring exact tops and bottoms.

What matters to me is whether an asset has reached a price where I believe the valuation is attractive. If it has, I am willing to buy even if I think it could still go lower.

That is why I bought Bitcoin at several points during the decline. I did not claim those levels were necessarily the final bottom. I simply believed Bitcoin represented increasingly good value.

My basic principle remains:

Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.

When Bitcoin had already fallen roughly 50%, I was willing to buy around $58,000 even though my own downside estimate had been closer to $52,000. If I was wrong by another 10%, I was comfortable buying more rather than waiting indefinitely for the perfect price.

Solana Was the Same Exercise

Solana provides an even cleaner example.

Around $60, its market capitalization was roughly $34 billion. My view was that the valuation simply did not make sense for a network of that scale and activity.

Did I know $60 was the absolute bottom? No.

I didn’t need to.

The valuation itself was enough for me to buy, and that position subsequently roughly doubled as Solana moved back toward $120.

That is the distinction I want to emphasize: you can believe an asset is undervalued without claiming to know exactly where the market cycle ends.

What I Need Before Calling the Bear Market Over

My actual confirmation is extremely simple:

Higher high → higher low → another higher high.

Throughout a downtrend, the market produces a repeating sequence of lower highs and lower lows. That is what defines the declining structure.

To confirm that the character of the trend has changed, I want to see that sequence reverse.

Bitcoin has already made an important higher high. Now I want to see where the next retracement lands. Whether the pullback comes from $86,000, $89,000, $93,000 or somewhere else matters less than what happens structurally afterward.

I want that retracement to form a higher low, followed by another higher high.

If instead Bitcoin retraces all the way through the previous low and creates another lower low, then in my framework the bearish structure has not actually been broken. What appeared bullish could simply evolve into a larger wedge or megaphone pattern and resume downward.

Why I’m Willing to Wait

This is also why I am reluctant to make dramatic market calls simply because they are popular or attract attention.

I would rather wait for the structure I use across every asset class than declare a new bull market prematurely.

That does not mean ignoring bullish evidence. The recent indicators matter, and the price action is clearly becoming more constructive.

It simply means confirmation has a specific definition in my framework, and we have not completed it yet.

Bottom Line

I am increasingly constructive on Bitcoin, but I am not yet ready to declare the bear market over.

The condition I am waiting for is straightforward:

Bitcoin has made the higher high. Now give me the higher low, followed by another higher high.

If that happens, I will consider the character of the market to have changed from a declining structure into a new rising one.

Until then, I can remain skeptical about the cycle call while still buying assets when I believe the valuation is compelling.

The same principle applies elsewhere. I like TLT around $78, the 5-year Treasury above 5%, and the 10-year above 5% because I believe those levels represent attractive value—not because I claim to know they are the exact bottom or top.

I don’t need perfect timing. I need a framework, good value, and confirmation when the market finally provides it.