This technical Quick Byte focuses on an important distinction: the difference between a healthy impulsive move higher and a true blow-off top.

Both can look extremely bullish while they are happening, but I treat them very differently. A sustained impulsive move can remain bullish for a lon…

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The markets are sitting in an unusually difficult position. My concern is that several macro pressures are building at the same time—rising bond yields, a strengthening dollar, weakness in the Japanese yen, and the possibility of further rate hikes—yet Bitcoin and crypto are refusing to behave the way they historically have during …

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This Quick Byte is a little different from the usual market updates. Rather than covering macro conditions or the day’s price action, this is a topic-specific walkthrough of one of the tools I use most often: the 50% Fibonacci retracement.

The basic idea is simple: when an asset makes a strong move higher, I generally don’t want to chase the breakout. Instead, I wait for the market to retrace part of that move and look for an opportunity to enter or add around the 50% Fibonacci level.

How I Set Up My Fibonacci Tool

The standard Fibonacci retracement tool in TradingView comes with a large number of levels. I simplify mine considerably because I don’t like cluttered charts.

For retracements, I primarily keep only:

• 0.50 — the 50% retracement

• 0.618 — the upper band of the “golden pocket”

• 0.65 — the lower band of the “golden pocket”

Everything else is generally turned off.

If an asset is in a bullish trend and pulls back toward the 50% level, I view that as an important area to watch for support. A deeper move into the 0.618–0.65 golden pocket can also represent an attractive area when the broader trend remains bullish.

How to Draw It

The process is straightforward.

Start at the lowest low of the move and draw the Fibonacci retracement up to the highest high before the pullback begins.

The horizontal position of the tool doesn’t matter. What matters is that the low and high are placed accurately. I personally extend the drawing manually to the right so I can see the levels without covering the entire chart with horizontal lines.

A recent Bitcoin example illustrates the concept. Bitcoin moved from roughly $57,000 to $66,700, and the subsequent pullback came almost directly back to the 50% retracement before finding support and moving higher again.

Why I Don’t Chase Breakouts

The practical value of this tool is avoiding the fear that you have “missed” a move.

Even during very strong bull markets, markets rarely move vertically forever. Strong advances routinely experience corrective pullbacks, and the 50% retracement gives me a systematic place to look for another entry rather than buying after a large move has already occurred.

Historical Bitcoin bull markets provide repeated examples of strong advances eventually returning toward the 50% level—and sometimes reaching the golden pocket—before continuing higher.

Current Bitcoin Levels

The larger Bitcoin move has still not completed the kind of 50% retracement I’m watching.

Depending on where the current leg ultimately tops, the retracement level naturally moves higher:

• A retracement based on the current structure points toward roughly $75,000.

• If Bitcoin first reaches approximately $93,800, the 50% level moves to roughly $78,000.

• If Bitcoin reaches approximately $97,000, the retracement moves toward roughly $80,000.

That is also why I have been comfortable maintaining my small quarter-position short from around $81,000: a normal 50% retracement from several of the upside targets I’m watching would bring price back toward or below that entry.

The ETF Inflow Signal

Another reason I’m watching for some softness is the recent large Bitcoin ETF inflow.

In the examples shown in the video, very large ETF purchases have frequently occurred near local highs and were followed by price weakness. My interpretation is that these large retail inflows can be another sign that the market is temporarily extended.

That fits with the Fibonacci setup: the current larger move has not yet completed its broader 50% retracement.

Bottom Line

The main lesson is straightforward:

Don’t panic because you missed a breakout, and don’t automatically chase price higher.

When an asset is in a bullish trend, identify the low and high of the move, draw the Fibonacci retracement, and watch the 50% level and golden pocket for a potentially better entry.

Even very strong markets pull back. The Fibonacci retracement gives me a disciplined way to decide where I want to add rather than reacting emotionally to the move itself.

Today’s focus is increasingly on whether we are seeing enough confluent evidence to say that Bitcoin’s bear market may be ending. I’m not ready to declare that conclusively yet because I still expect a meaningful retracement, but the number of signals turning bullish continues to grow.

Outside of crypto, the dollar remains an import…

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Let’s call this Breakout Monday.

The setup we were watching last week has now played out: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana all managed to hold the 365 SMA levels on their closes, and total crypto market cap did the same. Areas that had previously acted as resistance began acting as support—a significant structural change and, in my view…

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Today, live on television, we saw that that is not the case when it comes to the FED.

Warsh mis-read almost every indicator, then struggled to answer even the most basic of questions.

We will need to adjust for this policy blunder moving forward.

To me the recession is now …

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I promise you that I did not make that one up! :)

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The Clarity Act failing that is, and a 25 bps hike happening.

I am not 100% convinced either of those are true.

If Clarity passes, we should see a massive break out, not a SELL-THE-NEWS. If Clarity fails, then I do expect a pullback to support.

Warsh should NOT raise rates into a Supply …

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I also took the time to discuss an often looked over attribute in trading, and that is INSTINCT.

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Japan intervened AGAIN to prop up the Yen.

BTC trying really hard to hold its Bull Flag while Liquidity Pools keep taunting it to move down.

Meanwhile, our Crypto Magnet Map Tool takes another giant leap forward!

If you want to download the Six Monitor Portfolio report, here it is below:

Crypto Magnet Six Monitor Portfolio Report 2026 08 29

139KB ∙ PDF file

Download

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Watch for some action this weekend.

Also, I will be posting another QB at the end of today, with some really really exciting stuff!

If I may say so myself.

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