Today’s Topic: Why I’m Not Calling the Bottom Yet
A founder recently asked me a fair question: with so many indicators turning bullish, why haven’t I simply declared that the Bitcoin bear market is over and gone aggressively long?
We have seen several encouraging signals. The Fisher indicator has crossed, the bearish moon-cycle signals have failed twice, and Supertrend has turned green. At the same time, I still have a small quarter-position short around $81,000 and have not deployed the rest of that position.
The answer comes down to the difference between calling a bottom and recognizing value.
I Don’t Need the Exact Bottom to Buy
I have never built my framework around declaring exact tops and bottoms.
What matters to me is whether an asset has reached a price where I believe the valuation is attractive. If it has, I am willing to buy even if I think it could still go lower.
That is why I bought Bitcoin at several points during the decline. I did not claim those levels were necessarily the final bottom. I simply believed Bitcoin represented increasingly good value.
My basic principle remains:
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
When Bitcoin had already fallen roughly 50%, I was willing to buy around $58,000 even though my own downside estimate had been closer to $52,000. If I was wrong by another 10%, I was comfortable buying more rather than waiting indefinitely for the perfect price.
Solana Was the Same Exercise
Solana provides an even cleaner example.
Around $60, its market capitalization was roughly $34 billion. My view was that the valuation simply did not make sense for a network of that scale and activity.
Did I know $60 was the absolute bottom? No.
I didn’t need to.
The valuation itself was enough for me to buy, and that position subsequently roughly doubled as Solana moved back toward $120.
That is the distinction I want to emphasize: you can believe an asset is undervalued without claiming to know exactly where the market cycle ends.
What I Need Before Calling the Bear Market Over
My actual confirmation is extremely simple:
Higher high → higher low → another higher high.
Throughout a downtrend, the market produces a repeating sequence of lower highs and lower lows. That is what defines the declining structure.
To confirm that the character of the trend has changed, I want to see that sequence reverse.
Bitcoin has already made an important higher high. Now I want to see where the next retracement lands. Whether the pullback comes from $86,000, $89,000, $93,000 or somewhere else matters less than what happens structurally afterward.
I want that retracement to form a higher low, followed by another higher high.
If instead Bitcoin retraces all the way through the previous low and creates another lower low, then in my framework the bearish structure has not actually been broken. What appeared bullish could simply evolve into a larger wedge or megaphone pattern and resume downward.
Why I’m Willing to Wait
This is also why I am reluctant to make dramatic market calls simply because they are popular or attract attention.
I would rather wait for the structure I use across every asset class than declare a new bull market prematurely.
That does not mean ignoring bullish evidence. The recent indicators matter, and the price action is clearly becoming more constructive.
It simply means confirmation has a specific definition in my framework, and we have not completed it yet.
Bottom Line
I am increasingly constructive on Bitcoin, but I am not yet ready to declare the bear market over.
The condition I am waiting for is straightforward:
Bitcoin has made the higher high. Now give me the higher low, followed by another higher high.
If that happens, I will consider the character of the market to have changed from a declining structure into a new rising one.
Until then, I can remain skeptical about the cycle call while still buying assets when I believe the valuation is compelling.
The same principle applies elsewhere. I like TLT around $78, the 5-year Treasury above 5%, and the 10-year above 5% because I believe those levels represent attractive value—not because I claim to know they are the exact bottom or top.
I don’t need perfect timing. I need a framework, good value, and confirmation when the market finally provides it.
