Today’s Market Update: I’m Waiting for $70K Bitcoin — Then Looking for the Bounce
Today’s market is being dominated by the NVIDIA/Jensen Huang situation, but the broader framework has not changed much for me.
I do not think NVIDIA will be the same company without Jensen at the helm. The company may bounce from here, but long term I am not interested in owning it right now.
The more important questions for me remain the dollar, Treasuries and crypto.
I Still Don’t Believe the Dollar Is Breaking Out
There is still a lot of talk about a major DXY breakout.
I do not see it.
My original resistance targets remain approximately 103.3 and 105.5.
The dollar could still push a little higher before reversing, especially with USD/JPY approaching roughly 160.4, the euro nearing important support and the Swiss franc approaching its own long-term resistance structure.
But all of those components still tell me the same thing:
the dollar is approaching resistance, not beginning a run to 120.
I still expect it to roll over after this final push.
That should eventually support another bounce in gold and silver, although I am still waiting for much lower prices before making long-term purchases.
For gold, my preferred accumulation area remains around $3,200 and the rising 200-week moving average, probably sometime next year.
I Still Expect Another TLT Entry
TLT also remains in the same chop box.
I continue to think it comes back toward the lower part of the range before the eventual recessionary breakout.
That is why I have repeatedly said not to chase it near the top.
I am happy holding my current position, collecting the monthly distributions and waiting.
I Changed My Bitcoin Plan
This is the important part today.
I currently have three Bitcoin longs:
$75.5K
$75K
$73.5K
Originally, I planned to use my fourth and final position around the bottom of the Golden Pocket near $71.3K.
I have changed that.
Ethereum and Solana now have very clear return-to-sender structures.
Both have broken most of their important support levels, which raises the possibility that Bitcoin eventually follows them.
Bitcoin has resisted because dominance remains high, but I do not want to waste my final position too early.
So I turned to the Magnet Map to see where the liquidity is actually sitting.
The Magnet Map Points to $70K
On the daily Magnet Map, the largest macro downside liquidity pool sits around $62.4K, with a strong grade.
But the much closer downside pocket sits around $70.1K.
The 4-hour chart shows the same thing, with major downside liquidity clustered around approximately $69.9K–$70.7K.
The 1-hour chart also points toward that same region before showing stronger upside liquidity around $75K–$76K.
That confluence changed my plan.
My current expectation is:
sweep roughly $70K → bounce toward roughly $76K
So I am now planning to use my fourth and final long around $70K–$70.1K.
My Exit Plan Is Around $76K
If that $70K sweep happens, I would then have four unleveraged Bitcoin longs.
My current plan would be to exit all four around approximately $76K–$76.5K.
What makes that particularly interesting is that the Magnet Map independently identified an upside liquidity area near $76.1K.
That also happens to align almost perfectly with the 365-day moving average.
The Magnet Map does not know traditional TA, so when its liquidity target independently lands on a major technical resistance level, I pay attention.
That gives me a very clean trade structure:
buy the liquidity sweep near $70K → sell the retest near $76K
That would put me back to neutral with a meaningful overall profit.
What Would Change My Exit?
The one thing that could make me stay in longer would be a strong bullish engulfing reversal.
If Bitcoin suddenly produces an impulsive candle back above the 50-week moving average on strong volume, then I would reconsider selling at $76K.
That kind of move could push us toward the Bollinger basis, the 50-day moving average and eventually the larger liquidity area around $81K–$82K.
But that is not my base case yet.
Bottom Line
My current Bitcoin plan is now very specific.
I already have three longs at approximately $75.5K, $75K and $73.5K.
I am holding my final position for a potential liquidity sweep near $70K.
If that happens, my base-case target becomes approximately $76K–$76.5K, where the Magnet Map, the 365-day moving average and technical resistance all converge.
If instead Bitcoin produces a powerful bullish reversal and retakes the 50-week moving average, I will reassess and potentially hold for the $81K–$82K region.
For now, I am waiting for the market to come to me.
