Today’s Market Update: Despair Is Not a Strategy — Why I’m Four Long at $69K
Today I want to focus less on the market and more on how we react to the market.
A Founder used the word despair to describe how crypto feels right now.
I understand the frustration. We have endured roughly a year of bear-market grinding, Bitcoin broke above $80K, and now we are back around $69K.
But this is exactly the environment where I think having a framework matters most.
My entire philosophy of Trading Like a Wolf is built around expectation rather than hope.
You will lose trades. Everyone does.
The goal is to know:
If this happens, I do this.
If that fails, I do this next.
That keeps you proactive instead of emotionally reacting to every candle.
$69K Was the Plan
This is important because back on August 25, when Bitcoin was trading above $80K, I explicitly laid out the possibility of a 50% retracement toward roughly $69K–$70K.
Today Bitcoin is around $69K.
So although I certainly do not enjoy the decline, I am not shocked by it.
That distinction matters.
Being disappointed is normal.
Being surprised by an outcome we specifically planned for means the framework was not being incorporated into the decision-making process.
Bitcoin also never gave me the signal required to declare the bear market over:
higher low → higher high
We never got it.
My Long-Term Stack and Trading Portfolio Are Completely Separate
I also want to clear up some confusion.
I have a long-term Bitcoin accumulation stack and a completely separate bear-market trading portfolio.
My long-term stack is not actively traded. I generally make only a handful of accumulation buys during an entire cycle.
My next planned long-term Bitcoin accumulation is around $62K.
That is separate from what I am doing today.
The bear-market portfolio exists specifically so I can trade the volatility without touching my long-term Bitcoin.
That portfolio has produced 18 wins and 5 losses, roughly $41K net profit per Bitcoin traded, with a profit factor around 8.
The reason is not prediction.
It is framework.
Sometimes I am long. Sometimes short. I simply trade the levels in front of me.
I Am Now Four Long
The bear-market trading portfolio has four available positions.
No infinite averaging down. No endlessly “going larger.”
Four positions. That is it.
I have now deployed all four.
The first three were approximately:
$75.5K → $75K → $73.5K
And I ultimately deployed the fourth around $69K.
Why?
Because $69K was already my expected retracement area, Bitcoin was deeply oversold, and the current structure bears an extraordinary resemblance to the 2023 bottoming pattern.
In that earlier structure, Bitcoin experienced the same grinding retracement before suddenly reversing higher.
When that reversal happened, there was effectively one candle to get positioned.
I do not want to miss that if it happens again.
Large Buyers Are Absorbing the Selling
I also saw something important on the 5-minute chart.
During the cascade lower, normal Bitcoin volume was running around 20–30 BTC per candle.
Then enormous blocks appeared:
426 BTC.
246 BTC.
500 BTC.
Tens of millions of dollars were trading in individual five-minute candles.
But price barely moved.
That tells me the selling was being absorbed by large buyers.
Consumers were selling into somebody with substantial capital willing to take the other side.
I do not know who those buyers are, and I am not interested in relying on rumors about their identity.
What matters is the behavior.
Large buyers are appearing while Bitcoin is deeply oversold and sitting near a level I had already expected months ago.
That is enough for me to take the trade.
What If Bitcoin Goes to $62K?
It absolutely can.
In fact, $62K is my next long-term accumulation level.
That number appears repeatedly in the larger structure, including the bottom of Bitcoin’s long-term channel and the Bitcoin-versus-DXY channel.
So if this swing trade goes against me and Bitcoin reaches $62K, I am not trapped.
I used no leverage.
And separately, I would be preparing to add to my long-term stack.
For the trading portfolio, however, I expect a bounce before then.
Bitcoin is deeply oversold, large buyers are absorbing supply, and I think a V-shaped recovery could happen quickly.
My initial recovery area is roughly $75K–$76K, with the possibility of reaching approximately $78K as the descending 50-day moving average comes down.
Bottom Line
Bear markets are designed to grind people into submission.
That is how capitulation happens.
My defense against that is not optimism.
It is preparation.
We discussed a move toward $69K when Bitcoin was above $80K. We are now there.
I have therefore deployed all four positions in my bear-market trading portfolio, unleveraged, because I believe the risk/reward favors a sharp recovery.
If I am wrong, I have already planned for $62K.
And if $62K arrives, that is not where I expect to feel despair.
That is where I expect to accumulate Bitcoin for the long term.
The market does not have to follow my plan.
But I need to have one either way.
