What the heck is THE PIVOT?
It is a publication that aims to understand, contextualize, and give a mental framework to the monumental shift that occurred in America on the morning of November 5th, 2024.
It is based on a thesis by the same name “THE PIVOT”, that I authored in December of 2024. The central axiom of this thesis proposes that America has undergone a permanent, and profound transformation, a SHIFT, that has no equal in America’s last 100 years of history. It is not a proclamation of “Good” vs “Bad”, but simply a recognition, that our concepts, ideas, attitudes, morals and aspirations as Americans prior to November 5th, 2024, have to be entirely re-examined and re-learned in the context of the consequential PIVOT that occurred.
A PIVOT is a point in time, in which a country decides (willingly or not) to move away from its past, in a semi-permanent way, and into an entirely uncharted different future.
One of the central components to identifying a PIVOT is a large collection of markers (events/facts) that are true today, but that were never true at any other point in the past 100 years of American History.
Where can I read the full PIVOT thesis?
It has yet to be formally published.
The first draft was a statement of fact, and it was a rather bleak one. The metrics for the rate of change of the PIVOT of America are faster than most historical PIVOTs in other countries.
The full completion of this process does not lead to an encouraging outcome.
I am a generally optimistic person. I did not want to publish something and put it out in the universe, if it did not at the very least, carry a roadmap of understanding towards some form of positive outcome.
It has taken me several months of thought, reflection, conversation and interactions, to formulate a thesis that will not just be a regurgitation of facts, but rather a framework for a conversation and a set of priorities, that may help us find a way back to the essence of what makes us Americans.
There is a current placeholder tab on this site called : The Thesis.
That is where you will find it, as soon as it is completed and uploaded.
Which should be very soon… hopefully… yes… soon… maybe… no definitely. :)
What kind of material can I expect to read here?
This publication has 4 components.
Missives : These are posts of an evergreen nature. They are either larger form ideas on a specific topic, or they may be generalized advice on a subject matter, or even yet just philosophical musings. The idea of Missives is to bring forth a perspective on an issue that the reader may not have contemplated before. Missives can cover the Stock Market, Crypto Currencies, Trading, Politics, Sociology, History, or simply Life itself.
Market Updates : These are posts that specifically address timely Stock and Crypto Market concerns. They may be Stock setups, Technical Analysis considerations, General Macro updates, and any and all other Market related concerns that I am pursuing on my own, that I feel are worth sharing.
The Thesis : This is where “THE PIVOT” thesis will be hosted in its entirety.
Notes : Notes are personal postings to the substack community at large. They are mostly very short writings, often times sarcastic, humorous, observational, or sometimes even just re-tweets of other interesting posts. This area will also play host to: “THE PIVOT - QUIZ OF THE DAY”, a short quiz to see how closely you are monitoring our PIVOT from the “Old America”, to the new Ameristan. ;)
How often will the content be updated?
There is no set schedule.
The principal function of this site is to serve as a repository of thoughts, ideas, conversations, and personal actions.
Why are you combining Politics and History with Stocks and Crypto Market updates? Can’t we just keep those two things separate?
Historically, the answer would be YES. You could keep those two things segregated.
After THE PIVOT, that is no longer the case.
It is well understood that Politics have always had an influence on the markets. The party in control of the reigns, always had a well understood influence over the Stock Market. This is nothing new. If the Dems got into power, most investors knew how to adjust their Macro Views. The same could be said for Republican control.
What is entirely new and central to the PIVOT, is that Donald J. Trump was the first candidate in US History, to dedicate a large amount of his time during his last presidential campaign, to the process of actively marketing and selling anything he possibly could to personally enrich himself.
NFTs, Bibles, Playing Cards, Sneakers, Watches, Pieces of his suit cut into small bits, etc… He even took the time to record mini infomercials to sell his wares.
On his first day in office, on inauguration day, he shilled Crypto Coins ($TRUMP, $MELANIA) and pulled millions of dollars of profit for himself at the detriment of his supporters who bought in and lost their entire “investments”.
This level of grift has no precedent in US History, and we are just in the early innings of it. Remember when President Jimmy Carter placed his family’s entire Peanut Farm into a blind trust to avoid any sense of impropriety? That era was so PRE-PRIVOT!
Investing in the Markets today, wether in Equities or Cryptos, without consideration of Trump’s personal interests, investments, relationships, and on-going grift, is like investing in equities with no charts and no fundamental information. Looking at the name of a company, but not its balance sheet.
You could make the right pick, in the right sector, but Trump happens to make a personal deal with its competitor, suddenly you are one Wells Notice, FTC violation, DOJ Anti-trust action away from losing all of your money.
Trump is the Markets, and the Markets are Trump.
That is the new reality after THE PIVOT.
If the PIVOT is really happening, and a Soft Autocracy is upon us, what is the point of focusing on Financial Markets? Why not just focus on the political implications?
When people hear about the PIVOT, and understand its dire implications, the first thing they ask me is: “So what are we supposed to do about it? How do we stop this?”, and my answer is always an honest one. I DON’T KNOW.
America has never succumbed to an Autocracy. There is no precedent (which is why so many struggle to recognize it is happening), and there is no uniquely American playbook on how to deal with it. The best we have is history. Putin’s ascension in Russia, Erdogan in Turkey, Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, and an even better framework is Viktor Orban’s return to power in 2014 in Hungary. Upon re-election, Orban declared he would never lose an election again. And he has indeed not. And not because people love him so much.
In all of the documented instances of a transition, one of the most important components for survival has been the ability to safeguard your financial well being. Having money, gives you options. Options keep you nimble. Being destitute makes you pliable and desperate. Desperation prevents clear thinking.
You will need a clear mind for what lies ahead.
Are the Market Updates official trade recommendations?
HELL NO!
I am not a financial advisor. I am not your fiduciary. I am not authorized, licensed, or in any way trained or certified to give you any financial advice whatsoever. I cannot even legally tell you what time it is!
What I am is a person with several College degrees (Economics, Math, CS, Film Production), that was Valedictorian of my Graduating Class and a Collegiate National Debating Champion, a person who lived long bouts in Curacao, France, Canada and the United States, a person who speaks 3 languages and travelled internationally as a CEO coach for Fortune 500 Companies, a person with 30 years of Martial Arts experience and a person that started with less that $8 in his bank account, that never benefited from any social programs or safety net, that never inherited a penny from his parents, and that now lives a very comfortable married life, runs a successful software company, and lives in a multi-million dollar home.
In short, take everything I say with a grain of salt. ;)
Why should I subscribe?
As a paid subscriber, you will get full access to this newsletter and publication archives.
If you subscribe as a Founding Member, you will also have the ability to post comments, participate in Chat Discussion Threads, and attend a monthly LIVE Discussion Session.
Come on, how cool is that?
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Giddy Up!
Disclaimer
This publication and its authors are not licensed investment professionals.
Nothing produced under the THE PIVOT should be construed as investment advice.
Do your own research.
